MLB / mlb / live
TOR 8 / CHC 6TORToronto Blue Jays43%
CHCChicago Cubs57%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterPatrick CorbinConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
CHCHome starterColin ReaConfirmed
TOR43%ML +110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CHC57%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Patrick CorbinTOR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -106 draftkings / U -108 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Colin ReaCHC starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -121 betrivers / U +110 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132TOR / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total