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COL 5 / CHC 2
COLColorado Rockies38%
CHCChicago Cubs62%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterRyan FeltnerConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline62%Model 20260616_auto
CHCHome starterEdward CabreraConfirmed
COL38%ML +172
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
CHC62%ML -208

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.3 pts

Model at 62.4% vs market 63.5% is tight convergence on CHC. COL's 6.1 RPG inflated by Coors home splits; road offense likely weaker. Both starters ERA ~5.00, Wrigley slight pitcher park (0.95). Model total 8.78 vs market 9.5 suggests under value, though 73-game samples are solid.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.8
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -114 draftkings / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%over
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Edward CabreraCHC starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 fanduel / U -130 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+172 / -208COL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total