MLB / mlb / live
OAK 6 / CHC 7OAKOakland Athletics42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterJ.T. Ginn
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterShota Imanaga
OAK42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CHC58%ML -142
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.7 pts
Ginn's 0.00 ERA in 3.2 IP per start is noise, not signal. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP per start suggests recent struggles or limited sample. Model predicts 8.96 runs vs market 10.5; I lean under given weak offenses (OAK .512 OPS) and Wrigley's slight pitcher park factor. Pass on side: too much SP uncertainty to pick against a near-even market.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -142OAK / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -116 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total