MLB / mlb / live
SFG 18 / CHC 3SFGSan Francisco Giants42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterRobbie Ray
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterEdward Cabrera
SFG42%ML +152
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
CHC58%ML -180
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.7 pts
Model total of 8.97 vs market 11.0 is a 2-run gap—huge structural miss. Cabrera has no recorded IP/ERA/WHIP despite 10 starts (data issue). SFG's 0.388 OPS is impossibly low, likely corrupted. Cannot trust underlying stats. Market total seems inflated; lean under but pass on side.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+152 / -180SFG / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total