MLB / mlb / live
HOU 3 / CHC 0HOUHouston Astros36%
CHCChicago Cubs64%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterKai-Wei Teng
Model pickCHC moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterColin Rea
HOU36%ML +125
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
CHC64%ML -149
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.7 pts
Colin Rea's missing stats (0 IP recorded across 10 starts) make this unpickable on side. Model total of 8.82 vs market 7.5 is a 1.32-run gap; HOU's 2.5 RPG suggests offensive struggles but CHC at 3.3 RPG in a pitcher's park points over. Teng's 2.1 IP sample is noise. Structural uncertainty too high for side confidence.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -149HOU / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total