MLB / mlb / live
HOU 3 / CHC 0HOUHouston Astros36%
CHCChicago Cubs64%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterKai-Wei Teng
Model pickCHC moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterColin Rea
HOU36%ML +125
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
CHC64%ML -149
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.7 pts
Colin Rea's missing stats (0 IP recorded across 10 starts) make this unpickable on side. Model total of 8.82 vs market 7.5 is a 1.32-run gap; HOU's 2.5 RPG suggests offensive struggles but CHC at 3.3 RPG in a pitcher's park points over. Teng's 2.1 IP sample is noise. Structural uncertainty too high for side confidence.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -149HOU / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total