MLB / mlb / live
OAK 2 / CHC 1OAKOakland Athletics40%
CHCChicago Cubs60%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterGage Jump
Model pickCHC moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterJameson Taillon
OAK40%ML +107
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
CHC60%ML -128
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.0 pts
Model projects 9.04 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.54 run gap triggers total_far_from_market flag. Away pitcher Gage Jump has 1 career start with no resolved ERA/K9 stats; home pitcher Taillon has 10 starts but also null stats. Missing pitcher data makes both moneyline and total unreliable. Market implies CHC 54.2%, model has 60.2%; without pitcher context I defer to the sharper line.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+107 / -128OAK / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total