MLB / mlb / live
OAK 2 / CHC 1OAKOakland Athletics40%
CHCChicago Cubs60%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterGage Jump
Model pickCHC moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterJameson Taillon
OAK40%ML +107
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CHC60%ML -128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.5 pts
Model projects 9.04 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.54 run gap triggers total_far_from_market flag. Away pitcher Gage Jump has 1 career start with no resolved ERA/K9 stats; home pitcher Taillon has 10 starts but also null stats. Missing pitcher data makes both moneyline and total unreliable. Market implies CHC 54.2%, model has 60.2%; without pitcher context I defer to the sharper line.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+107 / -128OAK / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total