MLB / mlb / live
MIL 5 / CHC 2MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterJacob Misiorowski
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterBen Brown
MIL42%ML -116
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHC58%ML -102
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.5 pts
Model has CHC 57.5% vs market 49.1% — an 8.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 50 IP is elite strikeout stuff; MIL's .972 OPS dwarfs CHC's .694. Brown's 5.40 ERA in 33 IP suggests vulnerability. Model underweights MIL's offensive comparison; lean MIL side. Total: market 7.5, model 8.95 — fade model's high total in pitcher-friendly Wrigley (PF 0.95).
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-116 / -102MIL / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total