MLB / mlb / live
CIN 3 / CHC 8CINCincinnati Reds40%
CHCChicago Cubs60%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterRhett Lowder
Model pickCHC moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterShota Imanaga
CIN40%ML +165
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
CHC60%ML -200
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.8 pts
Market favors CHC at 64% vs model's 60%, a 4pp comparison. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 50 IP is concerning despite 12.6 K/9. CIN's offense (3.8 RPG, .629 OPS) is weak but Lowder (3.60 ERA) offers more reliability. Model and market align on total at 9.0. Slight contrarian lean to CIN given Imanaga's struggles, but thin comparison warrants caution.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+165 / -200CIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U 0
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total