MLB / mlb / live
CIN 6 / CHC 7CINCincinnati Reds42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterBrady Singer
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterColin Rea
CIN42%ML +148
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
CHC58%ML -176
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.7 pts
Model has CHC 57.5%, market implies 61.4% — modest disagreement favoring Cincinnati value. Singer's 6.75 ERA in limited IP suggests volatility. Model total 9.15 vs market 8.0 is a 1.15-run gap, leaning over. Rea's missing stats are concerning but both offenses above 4 RPG.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+148 / -176CIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total