MLB / mlb / live
CIN 6 / CHC 7CINCincinnati Reds42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterBrady Singer
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterColin Rea
CIN42%ML +148
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHC58%ML -176
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts
Model has CHC 57.5%, market implies 61.4% — modest disagreement favoring Cincinnati value. Singer's 6.75 ERA in limited IP suggests volatility. Model total 9.15 vs market 8.0 is a 1.15-run gap, leaning over. Rea's missing stats are concerning but both offenses above 4 RPG.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+148 / -176CIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total