MLB / mlb / live
ARI 0 / CHC 2ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterRyne Nelson
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterShota Imanaga
ARI46%ML +140
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHC54%ML -169
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.8 pts
Market implies CHC 60.3%, model has 53.6% — market is more bullish on Cubs. Both starters have 7+ ERAs in tiny samples (5.0 IP, 4.2 IP), making pitcher quality a coin flip. Model's 9.04 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.54-run gap; lean under toward market given pitcher data is essentially noise.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -169ARI / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total