MLB / mlb / live
ARI 5 / CHC 6ARIArizona Diamondbacks45%
CHCChicago Cubs55%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterZac Gallen
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterColin Rea
ARI45%ML +120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CHC55%ML -140
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.3 pts
Model total of 9.0 runs is 2 runs above market's 7.0 in a pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.95). Gallen's 9.0 ERA in 4 IP is a tiny sample; the market knows he's better. CHC's 5.7 RPG vs ARI's 5.2 RPG supports slight home comparison, aligning with market's -133. Lean CHC but under on total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -140ARI / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total