MLB / mlb / live
ARI 4 / CHC 8ARIArizona Diamondbacks53%
CHCChicago Cubs47%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill Kelly
Model pickARI moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterMatthew Boyd
ARI53%ML +132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
CHC47%ML -158
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.0 pts
Model picks ARI at 53% but market has CHC at 59% (Pinnacle -150). Kelly's data is fallback quality; Boyd's 14.73 ERA in 3.2 IP is tiny sample noise. Model's 9.01 total vs market 12.0 is a 3-run gap—likely the model sees pitcher quality the market doesn't trust yet. Structural flags argue caution; lean CHC on market wisdom, under on total given model-market chasm.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total12.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+132 / -158ARI / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.0O -107 / U -112
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total