MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / CHC 7PHIPhiladelphia Phillies59%
CHCChicago Cubs41%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterKyle Backhus
Model pickPHI moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterMatthew Boyd
PHI59%ML +143
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
CHC41%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap19.4 pts
Model has PHI at 58.6% but market implies CHC 60.9%. Both pitchers are disasters: Boyd 14.73 ERA in 3.2 IP, Backhus 20.25 ERA in 1.1 IP. CHC offense is elite (6.8 RPG, .694 OPS) vs PHI anemic (3.4 RPG, .570 OPS). Model picking the worse offense against two terrible pitchers is structural failure. Back CHC and lean over on total.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+143 / -175PHI / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total