MLB / mlb / live
NYM 1 / CHC 2NYMNew York Mets42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterTobias Myers
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterJavier Assad
NYM42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHC58%ML -131
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.7 pts
Assad's pitcher data is completely missing (fallback mode), making this a structural blind spot. NYM's 1.8 RPG over 21 games is historically extreme and likely reflects schedule or small-sample noise the model can't parse. Market at CHC -125 vs model 58% is minor disagreement, but without Assad's actual performance data I cannot justify overriding the coin-flip market line.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -131NYM / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total