MLB / mlb / live
PHI 1 / CHC 5PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
CHCChicago Cubs55%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron Nola
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterColin Rea
PHI45%ML -109
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CHC55%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.9 pts
Model has CHC at 54.7%, market is dead even (49.8% vs 50.2%). Significant data gaps: Colin Rea's IP/ERA/K9/WHIP all null despite 10 starts. CHC offense strong (6.2 RPG, .694 OPS) vs PHI awful (3.3 RPG, .570 OPS). Model total 8.73 vs market 7.5 is 1.23 runs high—lean over given CHC's bat advantage and incomplete Rea data.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-109 / -110PHI / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-178)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total