sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CHC 3 / BOS 4
CHCChicago Cubs47%
BOSBoston Red Sox53%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterClay HolmesConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterAlec GamboaConfirmed
CHC47%ML -122
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
BOS53%ML +102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.9 pts

Model leans BOS at 52.6% while market implies 46.7%, and the offense_defense_mismatch flag fits: Chicago has the better record (88-71 vs 85-74) and Holmes brings 97 IP of 3.25 ERA work versus Gamboa's 2-start, 1.16 ERA sample that will regress. Both starters under 3.50 argues under the 6.5, and the model's 7.55 total looks high for this matchup even at Fenway's 1.03 park factor.

offense defense mismatchace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total7.4
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Clay HolmesCHC starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -132 fanduel / U +116 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Alec GamboaBOS starter / home
Projected K1.9Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.556%under
O 2.529%under
O 3.513%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-122 / +102CHC / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total