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CHC 0 / BOS 2
CHCChicago Cubs55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterBrayan BelloConfirmed
CHC55%ML -120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS45%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.1 pts

Market is a coin flip (-102/-108) and the model's 54.8% CHC comparison is small; Chicago's 88-71 record and Peterson's 8.23 K/9 give a marginal nod despite his 1.51 WHIP. Model's 8.09 total sits 1.6 runs above the 6.5 line, but two starters with 4.49/4.96 ERAs and WHIPs of 1.37/1.51 at Fenway (PF 1.028) do support the over side rather than the model being simply wrong. Low conviction on both.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.0
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 fanduel / U +120 fanduel1 book at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Brayan BelloBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 fanduel / U -161 betonlineag2 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +100CHC / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total