sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
CLECleveland Guardians43%
BOSBoston Red Sox57%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterDaniel EspinoProbable
Model pickBOS moneyline57%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterRanger SuarezProbable
CLE43%ML +110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
BOS57%ML -130

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts

Suarez (143.1 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) is far more established than Espino, who has just 2 starts and 13.1 IP with a 1.43 WHIP despite 14.85 K/9. Model at 56.7% is close to the market's 53.5%, so no real comparison. Team offense inputs look internally inconsistent (BOS 2.7 RPG with .736 OPS vs CLE 4.9 RPG with .600 OPS), so I won't take the model's 7.75 total against a 6.5 line.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total7.7
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Daniel EspinoCLE starter / away
Projected K2.3
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.566%
O 2.540%
O 3.520%
O 4.59%
O 5.53%
O 6.51%
O 7.50%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K4.3
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 fanduel / U -137 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.562%
O 4.543%
O 5.527%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+110 / -130CLE / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total