sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CLE 3 / BOS 2
CLECleveland Guardians55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterParker MessickConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
CLE55%ML +104
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS45%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.0 pts

Model has CLE at 54.8% while the market implies 54.1% for Boston, a ~9-point gap with no clear justification. The team lines are internally inconsistent (CLE 5.6 RPG on a .600 OPS, BOS 3.0 RPG on .736), so I trust the market over the aggregates. Tolle (3.02 ERA, 10.45 K/9) vs Messick (2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) is a genuine ace matchup; take the small home side lightly and the under on 6.5.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total7.1
Market total6.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betonlineag / U -112 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 bovada / U -160 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+104 / -124CLE / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total