MLB / mlb / live
scheduledCLECleveland Guardians55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterParker MessickProbable
Model pickCLE moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleProbable
CLE55%ML +110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
BOS45%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total7.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.578%
O 4.563%
O 5.546%
O 6.531%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K6.4
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.595%
O 3.587%
O 4.575%
O 5.561%
O 6.546%
O 7.532%
O 8.521%
O 9.513%
O 10.57%
O 11.54%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus+110 / -130CLE / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -112 / U -118
32 books31 ML25 run line24 total