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scheduled
CLECleveland Guardians44%
BOSBoston Red Sox56%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterFoster GriffinProbable
Model pickBOS moneyline56%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayProbable
CLE44%ML +112
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
BOS56%ML -134

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.4 pts

Model (56.2%) and market (54.4% implied) align on Boston, and Gray's 2.82 ERA / 1.16 WHIP over 163 IP is a real comparison on Griffin's 3.67 / 1.19. Team offense lines look internally inconsistent (CLE 5.4 RPG with .600 OPS), so I weight the pitching matchup. Model's 7.87 total sits 1.4 above the 6.5 line with two sub-3.70 ERA starters; I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total7.9
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K3.7
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.570%
O 3.550%
O 4.531%
O 5.518%
O 6.59%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K5.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.557%
O 5.540%
O 6.526%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+112 / -134CLE / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U -1
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total