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CLE 0 / BOS 1
CLECleveland Guardians44%
BOSBoston Red Sox56%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline56%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayConfirmed
CLE44%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
BOS56%ML -144

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts

Model (56.2%) and market (54.4% implied) align on Boston, and Gray's 2.82 ERA / 1.16 WHIP over 163 IP is a real comparison on Griffin's 3.67 / 1.19. Team offense lines look internally inconsistent (CLE 5.4 RPG with .600 OPS), so I weight the pitching matchup. Model's 7.87 total sits 1.4 above the 6.5 line with two sub-3.70 ERA starters; I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total7.7
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -144CLE / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total