MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / BOS 2KCRKansas City Royals45%
BOSBoston Red Sox55%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth LugoConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline55%Model 20260907_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayConfirmed
KCR45%ML +170
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS55%ML -205
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +144 fanduel / U -180 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +150 betmgm / U -160 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+170 / -205KCR / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total