MLB / mlb / live
KCR 1 / BOS 5KCRKansas City Royals45%
BOSBoston Red Sox55%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline55%Model 20260907_auto
BOSHome starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
KCR45%ML +184
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS55%ML -219
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betonlineag / U -155 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 bovada / U +108 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+184 / -219KCR / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total