MLB / mlb / live
SEA 8 / BOS 9SEASeattle Mariners46%
BOSBoston Red Sox54%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
SEA46%ML +133
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BOS54%ML -157
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 fanatics / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -108 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+133 / -157SEA / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total