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SFG 4 / BOS 6
SFGSan Francisco Giants43%
BOSBoston Red Sox57%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLogan WebbConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayConfirmed
SFG43%ML +154
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
BOS57%ML -182

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.3 pts

Both model (57%) and market (62.3%) favor Boston; the gap means limited value at -175, but BOS's 5.2 RPG and .736 OPS against a Giants offense at 2.9 RPG/.388 OPS is a real mismatch. Model's 8.15 total sits over a 7.0 line despite Gray (2.65 ERA) and Webb (3.50, 1.06 WHIP) both throwing well and San Francisco providing little offense. Under is the better side.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan WebbSFG starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 fanduel / U -108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+154 / -182SFG / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total