MLB / mlb / live
ARI 7 / BOS 6ARIArizona Diamondbacks43%
BOSBoston Red Sox57%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
ARI43%ML +140
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
BOS57%ML -163
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -114 betonlineag / U +102 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanatics / U +102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -163ARI / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total