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ARI 4 / BOS 9
ARIArizona Diamondbacks54%
BOSBoston Red Sox46%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
BOSHome starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
ARI54%ML +145
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BOS46%ML -171

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.5 pts

Model's ARI lean (54.4%) contradicts the market's 61.1% home implied and the underlying inputs: ARI carries a .564 OPS and worse record, and Kelly's 5.11 ERA/1.48 WHIP is well behind Suarez's 3.25 ERA with 9.17 K/9. Taking Boston. Total leans under 8.0 given Suarez plus Arizona's weak offense, despite Fenway's 1.03 park factor.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +110 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%under
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 fanduel / U -105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+145 / -171ARI / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total