MLB / mlb / live
ARI 1 / BOS 11ARIArizona Diamondbacks44%
BOSBoston Red Sox56%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMitch BrattConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
BOSHome starterAlec GamboaConfirmed
ARI44%ML +116
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
BOS56%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mitch BrattARI starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 betmgm / U +114 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%under
O 2.568%under
O 3.547%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Alec GamboaBOS starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 1 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%under
O 2.559%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+116 / -132ARI / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total