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OAK 7 / BOS 3
OAKOakland Athletics37%
BOSBoston Red Sox63%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterGage JumpConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline63%Model 20260803_auto
BOSHome starterJake BennettConfirmed
OAK37%ML +230
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
BOS63%ML -285

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.8 pts

Market (69.4%) is higher on BOS than the model (62.7%), and the underlying gap supports the market: Boston 7.5 RPG/.736 OPS vs Oakland 2.9 RPG/.512 OPS, plus Bennett's 2.90 ERA and 1.01 WHIP against Jump's 1.47 WHIP. Model's 9.28 total overshoots the 9.0 line given how little Oakland's offense produces.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gage JumpOAK starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 draftkings / U -115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.52%over
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Jake BennettBOS starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betmgm / U +121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+230 / -285OAK / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total