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OAK 1 / BOS 13
OAKOakland Athletics37%
BOSBoston Red Sox63%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJack PerkinsConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline63%Model 20260803_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
OAK37%ML +226
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
BOS63%ML -275

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.5 pts

Market implies 70.2% for BOS vs model 62.7%; the gap favors the market here. Boston at 6.6 RPG and .736 OPS against Perkins (6.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) is a mismatch, and OAK's .512 OPS and 3.0 RPG face Tolle (3.30 ERA, 9.8 K/9). Fenway PF 1.03 plus the Perkins side pushes toward the over on 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jack PerkinsOAK starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 draftkings / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 14 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 betrivers / U +110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%over
O 11.51%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 14 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+226 / -275OAK / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total