MLB / mlb / live
CHW 0 / BOS 4CHWChicago White Sox44%
BOSBoston Red Sox56%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean BurkeConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline56%Model 20260803_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayConfirmed
CHW44%ML +125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
BOS56%ML -146
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -142 fanduel / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%under
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -140 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -146CHW / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total