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scheduled
CHWChicago White Sox43%
BOSBoston Red Sox57%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterLuis CastilloProbable
Model pickBOS moneyline57%Model 20260803_auto
BOSHome starterRanger SuarezProbable
CHW43%ML +160
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
BOS57%ML -190

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap5.5 pts

Market (63.9%) is more bullish on Boston than the model (57.5%), and the fundamentals support it: BOS at 6.0 RPG with Suarez at 3.15 ERA, 9.45 K/9, 1.16 WHIP versus a CHW offense at 4.4 RPG. Castillo's stats are a fallback, so the 8.82 total projection is unreliable — no view on the 9.0 line.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Luis CastilloCHW starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%
O 2.561%
O 3.539%
O 4.522%
O 5.511%
O 6.55%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K5.6
Best price at 5.55.5O -129 betrivers / U +120 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.591%
O 3.580%
O 4.565%
O 5.549%
O 6.534%
O 7.522%
O 8.513%
O 9.57%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+160 / -190CHW / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -117 / U -109
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total