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TOR 1 / BOS 6
TORToronto Blue Jays50%
BOSBoston Red Sox50%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline50%Model 20260720_auto
BOSHome starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
TOR50%ML +120
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
BOS50%ML -144

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.9 pts

Model sees a coin flip (TOR 50.3%) while market leans BOS (55.6% implied). TOR's 2.7 RPG offense is historically weak despite strong .786 OPS, suggesting run-scoring suppression will regress. Gausman's 4.51 ERA vs Suarez's 3.15 gives BOS a SP comparison. Model's 8.96 total vs market 7.5 is wide; Fenway 1.03 PF and TOR's offense due for positive regression support over.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +118 betonlineag / U -128 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 betonlineag / U -127 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -144TOR / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total