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BAL 5 / BOS 1
BALBaltimore Orioles41%
BOSBoston Red Sox59%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterKyle BradishConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
BOSHome starterEduardo RiveraConfirmed
BAL41%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
BOS59%ML -128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

BOS starter is TBD with fallback stats (3.31 ERA, 9.64 K/9 over 89.7 IP), making both moneyline and total unreliable. No market data to triangulate value. Bradish (3.61 ERA) is solid but without knowing BOS starter or market context, cannot form a defensible view.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +136 fanduel / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Eduardo RiveraBOS starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +108 draftkings / U -122 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.573%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -128BAL / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total