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TOR 6 / BOS 0
TORToronto Blue Jays46%
BOSBoston Red Sox54%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayConfirmed
TOR46%ML -105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BOS54%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.0 pts

Elite SP matchup: Gray 2.48 ERA, Cease 2.67 ERA with 13.37 K/9. Model has BOS at 54% vs market 50%; margin is trivial (+0.06 runs). Top SHAP features reference TOR offense heavily but TOR scores just 2.8 RPG. Total model at 8.93 vs market 7.5 is concerning. Ace matchup argues under.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / away
Projected K7.7Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -103 betrivers / U -110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.587%over
O 5.577%over
O 6.564%over
O 7.550%over
O 8.537%over
O 9.526%over
O 10.517%over
O 11.511%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 fanduel / U +125 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -110TOR / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-182)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -112 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total