MLB / mlb / live
BAL 5 / BOS 6BALBaltimore Orioles45%
BOSBoston Red Sox55%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterShane BazConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
BAL45%ML +138
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS55%ML -162
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 fanatics / U -154 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betmgm / U -120 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+138 / -162BAL / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total