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TBR 6 / BOS 7
TBRTampa Bay Rays52%
BOSBoston Red Sox48%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterIan SeymourConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260713_auto
BOSHome starterPatrick SandovalConfirmed
TBR52%ML -102
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
BOS48%ML -118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.2 pts

TBR 56-40 vs BOS 48-48, superior offense (.802 OPS vs .736) despite lower RPG. Sandoval has only 4.3 IP over 10 starts—likely opener role, not traditional starter. Model leans TBR 52.2%, market has it 49.1%, minimal comparison. Total 8.82 vs market 9.5 argues under, though Fenway PF 1.028 is neutral.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ian SeymourTBR starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 fanduel / U +135 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Patrick SandovalBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 draftkings / U -108 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-102 / -118TBR / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total