MLB / mlb / live
WSN 10 / BOS 2WSNWashington Nationals42%
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterBrad LordConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
WSN42%ML +125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
BOS58%ML -147
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brad LordWSN starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%under
O 2.561%under
O 3.539%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -103 betrivers / U -103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -147WSN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total