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TOR 4 / BOS 3
TORToronto Blue Jays55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterTrey YesavageConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayConfirmed
TOR55%ML +118
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS45%ML -140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts

Model favors TOR 54.5% but market has BOS at 53.3% — a narrow 1.2pp gap. Gray's 3.03 ERA in 62.1 IP is legitimate; Yesavage's 3.78 in 47.2 IP is solid but less established. Fenway's 1.028 park factor + BOS offense (.736 OPS) vs TOR (.786 OPS) suggests runs. Market total 9.0 vs model 9.22 aligns; lean over in hitter park.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada3 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 fanatics / U -130 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+118 / -140TOR / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -108 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total