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TEX 3 / BOS 6
TEXTexas Rangers46%
BOSBoston Red Sox54%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterJacob deGrom
Model pickBOS moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterRanger Suarez
TEX46%ML +104
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
BOS54%ML -124

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.5 pts

Model has BOS 53.6% vs market 51.7% — essentially a coin flip. Both pitchers at 3.18 ERA with deGrom's 10.7 K/9 comparison and 0.99 WHIP suggest slight road advantage. Model total of 9.09 runs vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run miss in an ace matchup at neutral Fenway (PF 1.03). Lean TEX and strong under.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +122 fanduel / U -145 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 draftkings / U -105 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+104 / -124TEX / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total