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TOR 6 / BOS 1
TORToronto Blue Jays51%
BOSBoston Red Sox49%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
TOR51%ML -122
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
BOS49%ML +102

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.5 pts

TOR pitcher is TBD/fallback (4.57 ERA across recent starters); model leans BOS at 56.9% vs market 47.2% — a 9.7pp gap on incomplete data. Model predicts 9.07 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.57-run overshoot likely from fallback pitcher noise. Tolle's 2.70 ERA in 53.1 IP is legit, but without knowing TOR's actual starter, both side and total are coin flips.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / away
Projected K7.0Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 bovada / U +106 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.555%over
O 7.541%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 fanatics / U -144 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-122 / +102TOR / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total