MLB / mlb / live
TEX 1 / BOS 10TEXTexas Rangers49%
BOSBoston Red Sox51%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterJack Leiter
Model pickBOS moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterSonny Gray
TEX49%ML +110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
BOS51%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Jack LeiterTEX starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 bovada / U -140 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +136 fanduel / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132TEX / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total