MLB / mlb / live
BAL 8 / BOS 2BALBaltimore Orioles42%
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterTrevor Rogers
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterBrayan Bello
BAL42%ML +100
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
BOS58%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.4 pts
Model likes BOS at 57.5%, market at 52.1% — modest comparison. Rogers' 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Bello lacks resolved season stats which adds uncertainty. Model total of 9.14 runs sits well under market 10.5; lean under given Fenway's modest park factor and skepticism on offensive projections.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -120BAL / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -107 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total