MLB / mlb / live
BAL 4 / BOS 2BALBaltimore Orioles55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterShane Baz
Model pickBAL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterConnelly Early
BAL55%ML +115
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS45%ML -136
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.7 pts
Model favors BAL at 55.2%, market implies BOS at 55.4%—essential agreement with sides flipped. Early's 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP is extreme small sample noise. Baz's 6.75 ERA equally noisy. Market_disagreement_large flag fires but disagreement is only 0.2pp when you align the sides correctly. No comparison here.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -136BAL / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total