MLB / mlb / live
ATL 10 / BOS 2ATLAtlanta Braves53%
BOSBoston Red Sox47%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterChris Sale
Model pickATL moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterPayton Tolle
ATL53%ML -133
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
BOS47%ML +114
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.7 pts
Model has ATL at 53% vs market 57%; slight comparison to BOS. Sale's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is a small-sample mirage but he's pitching well. Tolle's missing stats limit conviction. Model's 8.98 total is 2 runs over market 7.0; Sale matchup argues under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-133 / +114ATL / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -103 / U -123
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total