MLB / mlb / live
ATL 10 / BOS 2ATLAtlanta Braves53%
BOSBoston Red Sox47%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterChris Sale
Model pickATL moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterPayton Tolle
ATL53%ML -133
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
BOS47%ML +114
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.8 pts
Model has ATL at 53% vs market 57%; slight comparison to BOS. Sale's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is a small-sample mirage but he's pitching well. Tolle's missing stats limit conviction. Model's 8.98 total is 2 runs over market 7.0; Sale matchup argues under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-133 / +114ATL / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -103 / U -123
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total