MLB / mlb / live
MIN 6 / BOS 5MINMinnesota Twins52%
BOSBoston Red Sox48%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey Ober
Model pickMIN moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterSonny Gray
MIN52%ML +145
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
BOS48%ML -175
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.7 pts
Model has MIN at 52% but market strongly favors BOS at 58.5% implied. Both pitchers show identical 6.75 ERA in tiny 4.0 IP samples—noise, not signal. Model's 9.24 total is 1.74 runs above market's 7.5, flagging structural overestimation. Defer to market on side; lean under on inflated total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+145 / -175MIN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total