MLB / mlb / live
MIN 4 / BOS 2MINMinnesota Twins59%
BOSBoston Red Sox41%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterTaj Bradley
Model pickMIN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterJovani Morán
MIN59%ML +106
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
BOS41%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap12.0 pts
Morán has 2.0 IP in 2 starts this season—effectively an opener or bullpen day. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is a 2-start mirage. Model weighs pitch-level features heavily but neither pitcher has meaningful sample. Market disagrees with model by 6.6 pts; defer to market given structural uncertainty.
Large model-market gapace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+106 / -125MIN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -117 / U -104
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total