MLB / mlb / live
MIN 8 / BOS 6MINMinnesota Twins46%
BOSBoston Red Sox54%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterConnor Prielipp
Model pickBOS moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterPayton Tolle
MIN46%ML +129
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
BOS54%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.5 pts
Model likes BOS at 53.6% but market has them at 58.6% — a 5pp gap favoring MIN. BOS offense is league-worst at 2.6 RPG despite Fenway boost. MIN at 4.1 RPG is materially better. Model total of 9.02 vs market 7.5 is a 1.52-run miss; pitcher stats are null so can't validate structural reasoning. Lean MIN and over.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+129 / -152MIN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -102
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total