MLB / mlb / live
PHI 3 / BOS 1PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterJesús Luzardo
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterRanger Suarez
PHI55%ML -110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS45%ML -108
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.5 pts
Model predicts 9.13 runs vs market 7.0—a 2.1-run gap flags structural error. PHI's 4.9 RPG faces BOS 3.4 RPG offense; market sees pitcher comparison. Suarez lacks resolved ERA/IP stats despite 10 starts (data issue). Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample noise. Market coin-flip moneyline more credible than model's PHI lean given BOS home context.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -108PHI / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-183)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total