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TBR 0 / BOS 10
TBRTampa Bay Rays52%
BOSBoston Red Sox48%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260713_auto
BOSHome starterJake BennettConfirmed
TBR52%ML +100
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
BOS48%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.3 pts

Market and model converge on a near coin-flip (market 53.1% BOS, model 47.8%). Both starters have sub-3.20 ERAs with ace_matchup flag active. Model's 8.9 total sits nearly a full run above market's 8.0 line in Fenway (PF 1.03). TBR's better record (56-38 vs 46-48) and elite OPS (.802) tilts slightly toward the road side. Total should lean under given ace matchup and market disagreement.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.6Did not start / void
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.568%
O 3.548%
O 4.529%
O 5.516%
O 6.58%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K4.4Did not start / void
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.562%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -120TBR / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+127)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -108 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total