MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / BOS 2NYYNew York Yankees42%
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCam Schlittler
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterPayton Tolle
NYY42%ML -152
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
BOS58%ML +126
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap15.2 pts
Model likes BOS at 57.5% while market implies NYY at 57.7%—a 15-point gap favoring opposite sides. BOS is 8-16 scoring 2.8 RPG vs NYY's 5.7 RPG, yet model backs the worse offense. Tolle has fallback data. These structural red flags (pitcher_data_fallback, offense_defense_mismatch, market_disagreement_large) make this unplayable.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-152 / +126NYY / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-127)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total