MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / BOS 2NYYNew York Yankees42%
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCam Schlittler
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterPayton Tolle
NYY42%ML -152
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
BOS58%ML +126
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.3 pts
Model likes BOS at 57.5% while market implies NYY at 57.7%—a 15-point gap favoring opposite sides. BOS is 8-16 scoring 2.8 RPG vs NYY's 5.7 RPG, yet model backs the worse offense. Tolle has fallback data. These structural red flags (pitcher_data_fallback, offense_defense_mismatch, market_disagreement_large) make this unplayable.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-152 / +126NYY / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-127)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total